The crypto market is bleeding. Bitcoin has lost 2% over the past week. Ethereum is down further. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed more than $1.4 billion in recent outflows. Ethereum funds are losing assets too.
And in the middle of all that, XRP is quietly doing the opposite.
The XRP Ledger added 4,300 new wallets in a single 24-hour period on May 20, marking the fourth-largest network growth spike of 2026. Daily active addresses jumped from 32,000 to 43,520. XRP-linked ETFs pulled in $42 million in net inflows over the past week, even as every other major crypto fund category posted losses.
The price hasn’t moved much yet. XRP is still sitting near $1.37, stuck in the same $1.30 to $1.50 range it’s been trading in for weeks. But underneath the surface, the activity data is telling a different story.
Fresh Wallets, Fresh Money
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment flagged the wallet spike on Thursday and called it one of the most significant network growth signals of the year. New wallet creation measures how many addresses are interacting with a blockchain for the first time. When that number surges, it typically means new participants are entering the ecosystem, whether that’s retail investors, institutional accounts, or applications onboarding users.
Santiment’s Brian Quinlivan said network growth is “among the top leading signals to identify reversals” and placed the wallet surge alongside a set of on-chain metrics that collectively suggest XRP is trading in a lower-risk zone compared to most of its recent history.
The timing is noteworthy. This wallet spike arrived just days after the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee, bringing the most comprehensive US crypto market structure legislation closer to becoming law. For XRP, which spent years in legal limbo during the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple, regulatory progress has historically been the single most important price catalyst.
XRP ETF Money Is Flowing In While Everything Else Flows Out
XRP-linked investment products attracted $8.88 million in the most recent session alone, extending a streak that includes $18.52 million on May 14 and $10.87 million on May 15. Over the past week, total XRP ETF inflows reached approximately $42 million.
Since their launch in November 2025, XRP ETFs have accumulated a total of $1.39 billion in cumulative inflows and currently hold approximately 896 million XRP coins. Those are meaningful numbers for an asset class that didn’t have regulated ETF products a year ago.
What makes these inflows significant is the context. During the same period, US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed more than $1.4 billion and Ethereum funds also posted negative flows. Capital isn’t just entering XRP. It appears to be rotating into XRP from the two largest crypto assets.
That rotation could reflect several things. Some investors may see XRP as undervalued relative to Bitcoin after a prolonged period of underperformance. Others may be positioning ahead of CLARITY Act passage, which could unlock additional institutional demand. And some may simply be chasing the better risk-reward setup that XRP’s on-chain metrics currently suggest.
The On-Chain Data Says XRP Is in a “Lower Risk” Zone
Santiment’s deeper analysis goes beyond wallet counts and paints a picture of an asset that’s been punished enough to make contrarian investors interested.
XRP’s 365-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio sits at negative 35.12%. That means the average active XRP holder who bought within the past year is sitting on a 35% unrealized loss. The 30-day MVRV has also slipped into negative territory at roughly negative 3%.
When both short-term and long-term MVRV readings are below zero, it historically indicates that selling pressure has been largely exhausted. The people who wanted to sell have already sold. The people who are left are either holding through the pain or accumulating at what they consider to be discounted prices.
Quinlivan was direct about what that means. He said that readings below negative 30% on the long-term MVRV, regardless of which asset you’re looking at, tend to mark a statistically less risky entry point than the average moment in the asset’s history.
Crowd sentiment data adds another layer. XRP’s social tone has been leaning more negative than its usual baseline, with roughly 1.7 bullish comments for every bearish one. That’s below the typical 2-to-1 ratio that XRP’s community usually maintains. Santiment treats depressed sentiment as constructive from a contrarian perspective, the logic being that the best buying opportunities tend to arrive when people are most pessimistic.
Why the Price Hasn’t Moved Yet
If the on-chain data looks bullish and ETF money is flowing in, the obvious question is why XRP is still stuck near $1.37.
The answer is that on-chain signals and price action don’t always move at the same speed. Network growth, wallet creation, and fund flows are leading indicators. They show what’s happening underneath the surface before the chart catches up. Sometimes the lag is days. Sometimes it’s weeks.
The $1.40 resistance level remains the immediate barrier. As covered in our earlier analysis, roughly 36.8 billion XRP, about 60% of circulating supply, is held at an average cost basis of $1.44. That creates a mechanical ceiling where a large number of holders are looking to sell at breakeven. Pushing through that wall requires sustained buying pressure over an extended period.
There’s also the broader market environment working against altcoins in general. Bitcoin dominance remains above 60%. Institutional flows still heavily favour BTC. And the macroeconomic backdrop, with CPI data and Fed policy decisions still creating uncertainty, keeps risk appetite in check.
The wallet growth spike alone isn’t enough to trigger a breakout. But combined with ETF inflows, improving on-chain metrics, and the CLARITY Act advancing through Congress, it adds to a growing list of signals pointing in the same direction.
What to Watch From Here
The next catalyst that could turn XRP’s improving fundamentals into actual price movement is the CLARITY Act. Galaxy Research recently raised its odds of passage to 75%, with August identified as the most important month for the legislation.
If the bill passes with strong bipartisan support, Standard Chartered projected it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows. That kind of institutional capital entering a market where 60% of supply is sitting at a $1.44 cost basis and on-chain metrics suggest exhausted selling pressure would create exactly the conditions for a significant repricing.
In the shorter term, XRP needs to hold above $1.30 support and start printing higher lows on the daily chart to maintain the constructive setup. A clean weekly close above $1.40 with rising volume would be the first technical confirmation that the wallet growth and ETF inflows are translating into genuine demand.
Until then, XRP remains in the same frustrating limbo it’s been in for weeks: improving fundamentals, stubborn price, and a market waiting for the right trigger.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
