Bitcoin traders have had a wild 48 hours. On Friday, the price surged to $78,000 after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open. On Saturday, it fell back to $76,000 after Iran closed it again with gunfire reported at tankers. The biggest short squeeze of 2026 came and went in a single session. Now the market is looking at the calendar and seeing the same date everyone else sees: April 22. That is when the ceasefire expires. Three days from now.
What happens on that date will likely determine where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market go for the rest of the month and possibly the rest of the quarter. Here are the scenarios.
Scenario 1: The Ceasefire Gets Extended
This is the outcome the market is hoping for. If the US and Iran agree to extend the ceasefire beyond April 22, even without a permanent deal, the relief rally resumes. Oil stays below $90. Inflation expectations continue to ease. The Fed gets the breathing room it needs to start talking about rate cuts again. Bitcoin retests $78,000 and potentially pushes toward $80,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in nearly $1 billion in weekly inflows, their best week since January. Total net assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs climbed above $101 billion.
That institutional demand does not disappear because of a weekend pullback. If the geopolitical picture improves, the ETF flows accelerate, and the structural bid beneath Bitcoin gets stronger. Strategy is still buying. Morgan Stanley just launched a Bitcoin trust that pulled in $120 million in its first week. The institutional infrastructure is in place. It just needs the macro backdrop to cooperate.
Scenario 2: The Ceasefire Collapses
This is the outcome nobody wants but everyone should prepare for. If April 22 arrives without an extension and hostilities resume, the war premium comes back into oil immediately. Brent crude rebounded toward $94 to $96 per barrel after the Hormuz closure on Saturday, and a full collapse of the ceasefire could push prices back above $110.
In that scenario, oil rebounds toward the $100 to $115 range that informed EIA and sell-side forecasts as recently as last week. The inflation relief stalls before reaching the Fed’s decision calculus, rate-cut expectations drift back out, and Bitcoin surrenders its de-escalation premium.
How far could Bitcoin fall? Citi’s recessionary downside case of $58,000 marks the outer bound for Bitcoin re-entering a tighter-for-longer macro regime. That does not mean Bitcoin goes to $58,000 on April 22. It means the floor drops significantly if the conflict escalates and the energy shock returns.
Scenario 3: Diplomatic Limbo
This might be the most likely outcome. No extension is formally announced, but no escalation happens either. Both sides continue talking through Pakistan without committing to anything. The strait remains partially open with Iranian “management and control.” Oil settles in a nervous range between $90 and $100. Markets stay on edge but do not crash.
In this scenario, Bitcoin probably trades sideways in the $74,000 to $78,000 range, with every headline from Tehran or Washington producing a 2 to 3% swing in either direction. The pattern that has defined April continues: hope, spike, disappointment, pullback, repeat.
What the On-Chain Data Says
The Friday short squeeze cleaned out a significant amount of bearish positioning. Bitcoin climbed to $78,000 late Friday, triggering $762 million in liquidations across 168,336 traders, with $593 million of that on the short side. That forced buying created the spike to $78,000, but it also means the market is now less crowded on the short side. If another bullish catalyst arrives, there are fewer shorts to squeeze, which could mean a cleaner, more sustainable rally rather than a one-day spike.
On the other hand, the whipsaw may have damaged confidence. Traders who got squeezed out of shorts on Friday and then watched the price reverse on Saturday are unlikely to rush back into positions on either side. Reduced participation means lower volume, wider spreads, and the potential for larger moves on smaller catalysts.
What Else Is Happening Before The End of the Month
The FOMC meets on April 28 and 29, just days after the ceasefire deadline. If the ceasefire extends and oil stays low, the Fed’s tone at that meeting could shift meaningfully toward rate cuts later in the year. If the ceasefire collapses and oil spikes, the Fed stays in “wait and see” mode, and Bitcoin stays range-bound.
The CLARITY Act’s stablecoin yield compromise text could also arrive before the end of April. A successful Senate Banking Committee markup would be bullish for the entire crypto market, independent of what happens with Iran. But legislative timelines in Washington are unreliable, and the bill has been “close” for months without crossing the finish line.
The Bottom Line
Three days is not a long time. But for a market that has been whipsawed by ceasefire headlines every week since early April, three days is an eternity. The range is set: $74,000 on the downside if the ceasefire collapses, $80,000 on the upside if it extends. The catalyst is known. The date is fixed. What is not known is what Iran and the US will decide to do, and that uncertainty is the only thing that matters right now.
The best advice for anyone holding crypto through the next 72 hours is simple: know your levels, size your positions for the possibility that either scenario happens, and do not let a single headline determine your entire strategy. This market has taught that lesson three times in April already. A fourth lesson is probably on the way.
