Arthur Hayes thinks Bitcoin is going to almost double from here. The BitMEX co-founder said in a conversation with Kyle Chasse on April 23 that Bitcoin will reach $145,000 by year-end. His reasoning? The Federal Reserve is already printing money, the Iran war guarantees more spending, and nobody in Washington is going to stop any of it.
Hayes is not hedging. He said he is 95% long with only 5% cash. His fund is long-only crypto. The only decision he is making right now is whether to sell Bitcoin to buy things that could go up faster, like Zcash or Hyperliquid.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,900. Getting to $145,000 by December would require an 84% rally in eight months. That sounds extreme. Hayes says the math supports it.
Why Does Hayes Think the Fed Is Already Printing?
This is the core of his argument. Most people think the Fed is tightening monetary policy to fight inflation. Hayes says that is wrong. He claims the Fed is quietly expanding its balance sheet by roughly $40 billion per month through something called Reserve Management Purchases (RMP).
In simple terms: even while the Fed talks tough about inflation, it is buying assets and adding liquidity to the financial system. Not through the headline programmes like quantitative easing that make the news. Through smaller, less visible operations that most people do not track.
Hayes noted that Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, told the Senate that quantitative easing has harmed poor people. But Hayes argues that once Warsh actually gets the job, the pressure to keep expanding the balance sheet will be too strong to resist. “The impetus will be to continue the policies of his predecessor, which is balance sheet expansion,” Hayes said.
He does not believe the Fed balance sheet will shrink any time soon. “It’s going to take a long time for them to agree about a framework that governs that shrinkage,” he added.
How Does the Iran War Fit Into This?
Hayes connects the war directly to money printing. His argument is straightforward: wars cost money. Missiles cost money. Drones cost money. Maintaining a naval blockade costs money. And all of that spending has to be funded.
“Trump doesn’t care about CPI,” Hayes said. “He cares about how many missiles were sent, how much they cost, and how many drones can be killed.” The implication is that wartime priorities override inflation concerns. The government will spend whatever it needs to spend, and the Fed will accommodate that spending by keeping liquidity flowing.
Hayes identified three channels pushing dollar liquidity higher in 2026. The first is the Fed’s RMP programme adding $40 billion monthly. The second is commercial banks lending again. JPMorgan launched a $1.5 trillion loan facility for government-backed businesses. When a bank issues a loan, it creates a deposit, which creates money. The third is housing. Trump is pushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities, which drops mortgage rates and lets Americans borrow against home equity.
All three channels create new money. All three push liquidity into the system. And Bitcoin, Hayes argues, tracks dollar liquidity more closely than any other asset.
What Is Hayes Buying Besides Bitcoin?
Hayes is not just holding Bitcoin. He flagged two other bets he likes in what he calls a “liquidity-rich environment.”
The first is Hyperliquid. Hayes set a $150 price target for the HYPE token within four months, based on a model projecting $1.4 billion in annualised revenue by the end of August. HYPE currently trades around $40. That target implies roughly a 275% move.
His case for Hyperliquid rests on one idea: decentralised perpetual exchanges keep earning fees whether crypto goes up or down. As long as people trade, Hyperliquid makes money. And 97% of that revenue is used to buy back HYPE from the market.
“You’re basically allowing seven plus billion people access to these markets that they had no access to before and you give them high leverage,” Hayes said.
The second is Zcash. Hayes highlighted privacy coins as a growing narrative, arguing that concerns about blockchain surveillance and AI-powered transaction analysis will push demand for coins that offer transaction privacy. He did not give a specific price target for ZEC.
Should You Believe the $145,000 Target?
Hayes has a mixed record on predictions. In January 2026, he predicted Bitcoin would hit $250,000. In January, he said it would “topple $200,000 by March.” Bitcoin hit $60,000 in March. Those calls were wrong by a wide margin.
But his macro framework has been right about the direction. He called the bottom of the 2022 bear market months before it happened. He correctly identified the Fed’s pivot in 2023 as the catalyst for the next bull run. And his core thesis that Bitcoin tracks liquidity has held up over multiple cycles.
The $145,000 target requires an 84% rally in eight months. That is aggressive but not unprecedented. Bitcoin rallied 145% in the eight months following the January 2024 ETF approval. It rallied 190% in the eight months following the March 2020 Fed intervention.
The question is whether Hayes is right about the liquidity picture. If the Fed really is adding $40 billion per month, commercial banks are lending again, and wartime spending accelerates, the conditions for a major Bitcoin rally are in place. If the Fed turns genuinely hawkish, cuts liquidity, and the war ends with reduced spending, the thesis falls apart.
Hayes is betting everything on option one. With 95% of his portfolio in crypto, he does not have much room to be wrong.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
