Bitcoin $100K target calls are still alive at Standard Chartered, even after one of the roughest stretches of the year for BTC holders.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, has maintained his view that Bitcoin can reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. That sounds bullish on the surface, especially with BTC recently trading around the low-to-mid $60,000 range.
But the bigger story is the scale of the downgrade. Standard Chartered had previously projected Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2026 before cutting that view to $150,000 and then to $100,000. The latest target still implies upside, but it also shows how much the market backdrop has changed.
A Bullish Call With a Much Colder Tone
Standard Chartered is not abandoning its Bitcoin thesis. Kendrick is still framing the recent sell-off as painful but temporary, arguing that the worst of the forced selling may already be behind the market.
His reasoning is that Bitcoin’s decline was driven by a cluster of short-term stress points rather than a collapse in the long-term case. Those included heavy ETF outflows, forced liquidations and the symbolic impact of Strategy selling a small portion of its BTC holdings.
That distinction matters.
If the sell-off was mainly caused by leverage and positioning, Bitcoin may recover once the market resets. If the sell-off was caused by a deeper loss of institutional confidence, the path back to $100,000 becomes much harder.
Standard Chartered appears to be leaning toward the first interpretation, but with far less aggression than before.
ETF Outflows Are the Key Risk
The most important part of the forecast is not the number itself. It is the source of demand.
Bitcoin’s bull case has depended heavily on spot ETF flows since the products opened the door to a wider base of institutional investors. When ETFs are attracting capital, the market can absorb selling more easily. When they are seeing outflows, confidence weakens quickly.
Reuters reported that large Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $2 billion in net outflows in the week to Tuesday, the fastest pace on record according to LSEG data.
That is a serious warning sign.
Bitcoin does not need ETF inflows every single day to rally, but it does need evidence that long-term demand is still present. If ETF outflows continue, the $100,000 target becomes much harder to defend.
Strategy’s Sale Was Small, But Symbolic
Another reason the recent sell-off felt so different was Strategy’s Bitcoin sale.
The company, led by Michael Saylor, has long been viewed as the ultimate corporate Bitcoin holder. Its “never sell” image became a major part of Bitcoin’s institutional narrative. That is why even a small sale mattered.
Reuters noted that Strategy sold a small portion of its Bitcoin holdings to fund distributions on preferred stock. The sale represented only a tiny fraction of the company’s total BTC position, but the symbolism was powerful.
For years, Strategy’s accumulation helped support the idea that corporate treasuries could become a major long-term source of Bitcoin demand. If even Strategy can sell under certain conditions, investors have to think more carefully about balance sheet risk, preferred dividends and liquidity needs.
That does not mean Strategy is turning bearish. It does mean the “corporate treasury bid” is no longer treated as unconditional.
Why Standard Chartered Still Sees Upside
Despite the downgrade, Kendrick still sees current levels as a possible buying zone.
The argument is that Bitcoin has already absorbed a large amount of bad news. ETF outflows have rattled sentiment. Leveraged traders have been flushed out. Corporate treasury concerns have been repriced. BTC has also underperformed equities, leaving fewer crowded bullish positions to unwind.
In that sense, Standard Chartered’s $100,000 target is not based on euphoria. It is based on the idea that the market has already endured much of the forced selling.
That is a more restrained bull case than the earlier $300,000 forecast. It does not require Bitcoin to enter a full mania phase. It requires ETF demand to stabilize, macro conditions to stop worsening and buyers to return after the liquidation reset.
The Shrinking Forecast Sends Its Own Message
The most interesting part of the story is not that Standard Chartered is still bullish. It is that the bank’s target has kept falling.
A move from $300,000 to $100,000 is not a minor adjustment. It shows that even one of the most watched institutional crypto bulls has had to accept a weaker market structure.
That does not make the new target meaningless. In fact, it may make it more realistic. But it does change the tone.
The old forecast suggested a powerful institutional adoption wave. The new forecast suggests a recovery after stress, with Bitcoin still capable of upside but no longer enjoying the same level of confidence from corporate treasury buying and ETF flows.
What Bitcoin Needs to Prove Next
For Bitcoin to make Standard Chartered’s target look achievable, several things need to happen.
First, BTC needs to stay above the major support zone around $60,000. A deeper break below that level would likely revive fears of another liquidation wave.
Second, ETF outflows need to slow or reverse. That would show that institutional investors are not abandoning Bitcoin after the correction.
Third, the market needs to see whether Strategy and other corporate holders remain net buyers, pause accumulation or become occasional sellers. That could decide whether the corporate treasury narrative stabilizes or keeps weakening.
The $100,000 target is still possible, but it now depends more on repair than momentum.
A More Realistic Bitcoin Bull Case
Standard Chartered’s updated Bitcoin view captures the market’s current mood well.
The bank is not calling the Bitcoin thesis broken. It is also no longer talking like BTC is on a smooth path to $300,000. The new message is more cautious: the sell-off may have created opportunity, but only if ETF flows recover and forced selling fades.
That is a much more mature Bitcoin story.
The market is no longer being priced only on hope, halving cycles or corporate treasury excitement. It is being tested by liquidity, ETF demand, leverage and real balance sheet decisions.
For Bitcoin bulls, the good news is that one of Wall Street’s best-known crypto voices still sees a path to $100,000.
The harder truth is that the path now looks narrower than it did before.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
