Bitcoin just hit $80,594 and got smacked back down by an Iranian missile report. Strategy reports earnings in a few hours. GraniteShares will attempt to launch 3x leveraged XRP ETFs for the sixth time on Wednesday. The US jobs report lands Friday. And the Senate returns May 11, where the CLARITY Act faces an 8-day window to survive.
This is one of those weeks where five different things could each move the market on their own. Together, they create a setup where something big is almost guaranteed to happen. Here is what to watch, day by day.
Monday: Strategy Reports Q1 Earnings
This is the first thing that matters. Strategy releases its Q1 2026 results today, and it is going to look ugly on paper.
The company bought roughly 89,600 BTC for $5.5 billion during a quarter where Bitcoin dropped over 20%. The accounting rules force Strategy to mark its holdings to market every quarter. That means the financial statements will show massive unrealised losses even though Bitcoin has since recovered.
Analysts expect a loss of about $19 per share. That number will make headlines. But Strategy investors know the loss is almost entirely driven by Bitcoin’s price, not by anything wrong with the business.
What really matters is what Saylor says on the earnings call. Does he announce a new purchase target? Does he signal a shift from common stock to preferred stock for future buying? Does he sound confident or cautious? Saylor paused buying last week for the first time in seven weeks. He said “back to work next week.” The market is holding him to that promise.
Wednesday: GraniteShares 3x XRP ETFs (Maybe)
GraniteShares is scheduled to launch 3x Long and 3x Short XRP ETFs on NASDAQ on May 7. If that sounds familiar, it is because this launch has been delayed five times already since the original April 2 date.
If it actually happens, US retail traders get their first regulated way to take 3x leveraged positions on XRP through a normal brokerage account. That is a big deal for XRP, which has been stuck between $1.30 and $1.45 for weeks.
If it gets delayed a sixth time, these ETFs might never launch. The SEC forced ProShares to pull its entire 3x crypto lineup in December after pushing back on the same structure. GraniteShares is using a different regulatory pathway, but the uncertainty is real.
Also on Wednesday: Palantir, AMD, and Arm all report earnings. These are AI-adjacent companies whose results will influence whether the tech rally continues or stalls. If tech earnings are strong, risk appetite stays high and crypto benefits.
Friday: US Jobs Report
This is the one the whole market watches. The Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the April employment report on Friday morning.
Economist Ed Yardeni called it “the main event” for the week. Current expectations are for unemployment to tick down to 4.2%, with jobless claims suggesting the labour market is still healthy.
Why does this matter for crypto? Because a strong jobs report means the economy is not falling into recession, which supports risk assets. A weak report means the economy is cracking, which raises rate cut expectations but also spooks investors. The market wants a “Goldilocks” number: not too hot (which kills rate cut hopes), not too cold (which signals a downturn).
Bitcoin has traded in lockstep with equity markets all year. The jobs report moves stocks. Stocks move crypto. If Friday’s number surprises in either direction, expect Bitcoin to react within minutes.
The $80,000 Retest
Bitcoin briefly crossed $80,000 yesterday before Iran’s missile report knocked it back. The question for the week is whether it tries again.
The setup is better than it was a week ago. ETFs pulled in $630 million on the first day of May. Strategy should resume buying after earnings. The CLARITY Act compromise text was released and drew immediate support from Coinbase and Circle. Polymarket now gives the bill a 60% chance of passing, the highest in over a month.
But the Iran situation just escalated. Trump launched Project Freedom, sending warships to escort ships through the Strait. Iran fired at one (or near one, depending on who you believe). Oil spiked 5% before the US denied it. Every escort run this week is a potential headline that moves Bitcoin hundreds of dollars in minutes.
If the week goes smoothly, no Iran escalation, decent earnings, good jobs data, Bitcoin retests $80,000 with a real chance of holding it. If any of those things go wrong, the $77,000 to $78,000 support gets tested instead.
The Bigger Picture: May 11 to 21
This week sets up the even bigger week that follows. The Senate returns on May 11. The CLARITY Act markup is expected between May 11 and 15. Kevin Warsh gets confirmed as Fed Chair around the same date. And the Senate has until May 21 before Memorial Day recess.
If the CLARITY Act clears the Banking Committee, crypto gets its most significant regulatory win ever. If it does not, the bill could be dead until 2030. That single vote will have more impact on the industry than any earnings report, any jobs number, or any missile headline.
This week is the warm-up. Next week is the main event. But the warm-up has enough in it to move markets on its own.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
