India Blocks Polymarket and Prepares to Ban Kalshi in Prediction Market Crackdown

The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) issued a formal blocking order, instructing internet service providers to cut access to Polymarket at the network level. This is a comprehensive block, not a warning or partial restriction, making the platform inaccessible without advanced technical workarounds.

Polymarket is not the only platform affected. A blocking order for Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market recently valued at $22 billion after raising $1 billion, is expected as early as May 23.

India is taking a strict approach, treating prediction markets similarly to illegal gambling operations. For an industry experiencing rapid growth and broader acceptance, this serves as a reminder that not all countries share this perspective.

This enforcement action has been developing for several months.

In August 2025, India’s parliament passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, known as PROGA. The law created a clear legal framework that separates legitimate e-sports from prohibited “online money gaming,” the category India puts prediction markets in.

PROGA officially came into force on May 1, 2026. But even before that, MeitY was laying the groundwork. On April 25, the ministry sent a letter directly to VPN providers warning that users were accessing “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms” despite domestic prohibitions. The advisory named Polymarket specifically.

This represents a significant escalation. By targeting VPN providers in addition to the platforms, India demonstrates its commitment to enforcing the block. While users in other countries often bypass bans using VPNs, India is proactively addressing this potential workaround.

Despite these warnings, both Polymarket and Kalshi continued to accept Indian users. Their decision to maintain onboarding in defiance of government directives appears to have accelerated enforcement. MeitY escalated from advisories to comprehensive ISP-level blocks within weeks.

The ban is significant, as India was one of Polymarket’s key growth markets.

According to Similarweb data for April 2026, India accounted for approximately 6.49% of all traffic to Polymarket, ranking among its top user markets behind only the United States and Canada. Traffic from India grew 37% during that period, making it one of the fastest-growing sources of users on the platform.

Prediction markets gained global popularity during the 2024 US presidential election. Polymarket became a leading platform for those interested in wagering on political outcomes. This interest extended to India, where a young, tech-savvy population with widespread smartphone access formed a receptive audience.

Now, that audience has lost access. With local Indian prediction platforms also shutting down in anticipation of enforcement, the domestic market for event-based trading in India is effectively closing.

Kalshi’s situation is different from Polymarket’s in important ways. Polymarket is a decentralized, crypto-native platform that operates largely outside traditional regulatory frameworks. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market that operates under US federal law.

These distinctions are not relevant under Indian law. Under PROGA, any platform that allows users to wager real money on future events is classified as prohibited online money gaming. The platform’s regulatory status, technology, or financial structure does not affect this classification. If Indian users can access and place bets, the platform is considered illegal in India.

A blocking order for Kalshi is reportedly being prepared and could be issued as early as Friday. If implemented, India will have blocked both of the world’s largest prediction market platforms within the same week.

The timing is challenging for the sector. In the US, a House Oversight Committee is investigating whether Polymarket and Kalshi have adequate safeguards against insider trading. Arizona filed 20 criminal counts against Kalshi last month. Now, India, one of the world’s largest digital markets, is restricting access entirely.

India is not the first country to ban prediction markets, and it is unlikely to be the last.Argentina ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in March after a Buenos Aires court concluded the platform was operating outside local regulations. Portugal’s gambling regulator took similar action after more than €5 million surged into presidential election contracts. In the US, Nevada, New Jersey, and several other states have issued cease-and-desist orders or launched legal challenges.

This pattern is consistent. Prediction markets expanded rapidly during a period of minimal regulation. Now, governments worldwide are increasing oversight, with many concluding that these platforms resemble gambling more than financial innovation.

India’s approach is among the most stringent. The country imposes a 30% flat tax on crypto gains and a 1% tax deducted at source on all crypto transactions. Several Indian crypto startups have relocated to Dubai and Singapore, citing regulatory challenges. The prediction market ban aligns with India’s broader policy of strict regulation for digital financial products that do not fit established categories.

The ban in India removes access to 1.4 billion people, representing the world’s largest young digital population. For an industry with $178 billion in annualized trading volume and a $22 billion company valuation, losing India is a significant setback to growth projections.

It also raises a new question for the prediction market industry: what occurs when platforms that regulators cannot directly control are blocked at the infrastructure level?

Polymarket’s crypto-native architecture makes it more difficult to shut down than a traditional website. Users can still access it via VPNs, mirror sites, or direct interaction with smart contracts. However, India’s decision to target VPN providers indicates the government is prepared for sustained enforcement beyond what most crypto platforms typically encounter.

For users in countries where prediction markets remain legal, these developments do not affect their immediate experience. Polymarket and Kalshi continue to operate normally in the US and most other markets. However, the decreasing number of jurisdictions where these platforms can operate freely is a trend to monitor.