XRP has printed a red candle every single day this week. The token dropped from $1.33 on May 31 to $1.11 on Thursday, a 16.5% decline in six sessions. Today looks like it could make it seven.
The decline has been methodical rather than panicked. No single crash event. No flash liquidation. Just steady, persistent selling that has pushed XRP through support level after support level without a single meaningful bounce. The $1.30 floor broke first. Then $1.28. Then $1.21. Each level that was supposed to hold gave way within hours.
The RSI has dropped to 16.9 on the daily chart, a reading so deeply oversold that it has occurred fewer than a dozen times in XRP’s 14-year history. The monthly RSI sits below 43, which CoinDesk noted has only happened a handful of times since XRP launched. Previous instances at these levels preceded some of the largest rallies in the token’s history.
But previous instances didn’t feature a $3.58 billion ETF outflow streak, Bitcoin below $62,000, and a Fear and Greed Index at 12. The oversold signal is screaming. The market isn’t listening.
60% of Holders Are Now in Loss
The on-chain picture is as grim as the chart.
Approximately 60% of all XRP holders are sitting on unrealised losses at the current price. That means the majority of people who own the token bought at higher prices and are watching their positions bleed deeper into the red every day.
The concentration of cost basis matters for understanding where selling pressure lives. A dense cluster of supply sits between $1.21 and $1.30, where millions of wallets purchased during the post-CLARITY Act rally in mid-May. Those holders bought on optimism about regulatory clarity and are now 10-15% underwater. Some are cutting their losses. Others are holding and hoping. The ones selling are adding to the pressure pushing XRP lower.
Below current prices, the next major supply cluster sits at $1.00. That psychological level hasn’t been tested since early 2024. A breakdown below $1.00 would put XRP at its lowest price in over two years and would likely trigger a fresh wave of capitulation from holders who have been clinging to the hope of a recovery.
The 40% of holders who remain in profit mostly purchased during the 2023-2024 accumulation period when XRP traded between $0.40 and $0.80. Their cost basis is low enough that even a further decline to $0.90 wouldn’t push them underwater. That long-term holder base provides a structural floor, but it sits well below where the price is trading now.
The CLARITY Act Is Everything
Strip away the technical indicators and the on-chain data, and XRP’s fate comes down to a single question: does the CLARITY Act pass?
The bill was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. JPMorgan warned this week that the window for passage is shrinking as the midterm election calendar tightens and the stablecoin yield dispute with Jamie Dimon escalates. Senator Lummis indicated the vote may not occur until August, though the June 15-18 window remains the most likely target.
For XRP specifically, the CLARITY Act is more important than for any other token in the top 20. The bill would formally classify digital assets including XRP as commodities rather than securities. That classification determines which regulator oversees XRP, how exchanges can list and trade it, and how institutional investors can hold it in regulated products.
Standard Chartered projected $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows if the bill passes. Galaxy Research puts the odds of passage at 75%. Polymarket bettors are less optimistic at roughly 59%.
The problem is that the market already priced in passage once. XRP rallied from $1.30 to $1.55 when the bill cleared the Banking Committee. That premium has been entirely erased. If the market prices in passage again and the vote fails or gets delayed, the disappointment could push XRP below $1.00.
If the vote passes with strong bipartisan support, the short squeeze potential is enormous. Short positions currently outnumber longs by roughly 9-to-1 in XRP derivatives. A catalyst strong enough to push XRP above $1.21 would trigger forced covering that could send the price to $1.40 or higher within days.
The setup is binary. The vote decides everything.
What the Whales Are Doing
The smart money is sending mixed signals that are worth parsing carefully.
On the accumulation side, whale wallets hit a record 332,230 addresses. Over 25 million XRP left exchanges in recent days, a classic signal of holders moving tokens to long-term storage rather than positioning to sell. XRP ETFs pulled in $20.3 million last week and $131.94 million in May despite the broader market collapse. Cumulative ETF inflows since launch have surpassed $1.5 billion.
On the selling side, large transactions above $1 million have increased during the decline, suggesting some whales are taking profits or cutting losses. The Anodos Finance CEO said his firm has been buying XRP and paying employees with it since 2023, but individual institutional endorsements don’t move markets when the macro tide is flowing out.
The net picture is that institutional money continues flowing in through ETFs and whale accumulation while the price falls on leverage liquidations, correlated selling with Bitcoin, and the broader risk-off environment. The flows and the price are telling two different stories, and one of them will eventually be proven wrong.
The Key Levels From Here
The downside roadmap is straightforward.
Immediate support sits at $1.00. That round number carries enormous psychological weight and represents the last major level before XRP enters territory it hasn’t visited since 2024. A breakdown below $1.00 would target the $0.85 to $0.90 zone.
On the upside, $1.21 is the first level that needs to be reclaimed. It was support for weeks before breaking this week. Above that, $1.30 was the base of the CLARITY Act rally and represents the level where the bearish trend reverses into something more constructive. Reclaiming $1.37 (the 50-day EMA) would shift the short-term trend from bearish to neutral.
The RSI at 16.9 is the most oversold reading XRP has printed in 2026. In isolation, that’s a powerful buy signal. In the context of a market where Bitcoin is at $62,000, the Fear index is at 12, and $3.58 billion has left crypto ETFs in two weeks, oversold signals can stay oversold longer than anyone expects.
The FOMC meeting on June 17-18 and the CLARITY Act floor vote in the same window create a convergence of catalysts that could resolve XRP’s direction for the rest of the year. Dovish Fed signals plus a successful CLARITY Act vote would produce one of the sharpest XRP rallies in history. Hawkish Fed plus a stalled bill would send XRP to $1.00 or below.
Two weeks. Two catalysts. The most oversold reading of the year. And 60% of holders praying for a reversal. XRP has never been more compressed, more binary, or more dependent on events outside its control.
FAQ
Why has XRP dropped to $1.11?
XRP posted six consecutive red days, falling from $1.33 to $1.11, driven by Bitcoin’s crash to $61,000, $3.58 billion in total crypto ETF outflows, and the broader risk-off environment. The entire post-CLARITY Act rally from May has been erased. The RSI dropped to 16.9, one of the most oversold readings in XRP’s history.
How many XRP holders are at a loss?
Approximately 60% of all XRP holders are currently sitting on unrealised losses. The densest cluster of underwater supply sits between $1.21 and $1.30, where many holders bought during the mid-May CLARITY Act rally. The 40% in profit mostly accumulated during 2023-2024 at prices between $0.40 and $0.80.
What could trigger an XRP recovery?
The CLARITY Act floor vote (expected June 15-18) and the FOMC meeting (June 17-18) are the two catalysts that will likely determine XRP’s direction. Short positions outnumber longs 9-to-1, creating explosive squeeze potential if a positive catalyst arrives. Standard Chartered projects $4 to $8 billion in ETF inflows if the CLARITY Act passes, which could drive a rapid recovery above $1.40.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
