The crypto industry’s super PACs have spent roughly $170 million on the U.S. midterm elections, and their single largest target is a race that prediction markets expect them to lose. On Monday, a day before polls open, traders on Polymarket priced a win for Democrat Sherrod Brown in the Ohio Senate race at 72.5%. Fairshake and its affiliates have put almost $56 million into defeating the former senator, CoinDesk reported.
That gap between where crypto PAC midterm spending went and where the odds sit is the main thing to watch for crypto on Tuesday night. The next Congress will decide whether a market structure bill gets another shot.
Where the money went
Fairshake is the biggest player by a wide margin. OpenSecrets data updated on Nov. 1 puts total 2026 spending by the group and its two affiliates at $154.7 million. Most of that ran through Defend American Jobs ($104.98 million), followed by Protect Progress ($30.26 million) and Fairshake itself ($19.41 million). A Fairshake spokesman gave CoinDesk a figure of $154 million and said the PAC still holds a $56 million reserve for the next cycle, similar to its strategy two years ago.
Two smaller groups pushed the total toward $170 million. The Digital Freedom Fund, backed mainly by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, committed more than $8 million in recent weeks to stop Democratic challengers in the Ohio, Texas and Iowa Senate races, according to Federal Election Commission filings cited by CoinDesk. It has put $7.2 million into Ohio alone, $4.2 million of it opposing Brown. The Fellowship Fund, funded by Cantor Fitzgerald, gave $3.8 million to Republican candidates earlier in the year, including Ken Paxton in Texas, then later $600,000 to three Democratic incumbents, half of it to New York Representative Ritchie Torres.
A broader count from Reuters found about $176 million spent across more than 100 races, with Fairshake and its affiliates accounting for about $150.8 million through Oct. 20 and other crypto groups about $25 million. For comparison, Fairshake spent $196 million in the 2024 cycle.
The big Senate bets and what the markets say
The Ohio race, where Brown is trying to win back a seat now held by Republican Jon Husted, absorbed more than a third of Fairshake’s spending. Brown chaired the Senate Banking Committee from 2021 until his 2024 defeat, which Reuters called Fairshake’s highest-profile win of that cycle. Reuters, citing AdImpact, put total crypto spending on the race at more than $68 million. Polymarket’s odds suggest the second attempt may not land the same way.
The picture is mixed elsewhere. Fairshake committed almost $11 million to Republican Senator Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, where Polymarket gives Republicans a 71.5% chance against independent Dan Osborn. In Texas, where the Digital Freedom Fund spent $393,000 opposing Democrat James Talarico and $166,000 backing Paxton, traders put the Democrats at 73.5%. Iowa is close to a coin flip, with Republicans at 53.5%; the Winklevoss-backed PAC spent $474,000 against Democrat Josh Turek and $167,000 for Republican Ashley Hinson there.
Illinois may be another miss. Reuters reported that Fairshake spent more than $10.1 million attacking Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton in her Senate bid, and Polymarket prices a Democratic win there at more than 99%. Fairshake points to its primary record instead: it said 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries and special elections won, according to Reuters.
“We back pro-crypto candidates who support American innovation in both parties, and look forward to continuing to build on the largest pro-crypto caucus in American history,” Fairshake spokesman Geoff Vetter said in a statement.
Why control of Congress matters for crypto bills
At the chamber level, Polymarket has Democrats at 94.5% to win the House and 72.5% to take the Senate. Its balance-of-power market puts a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 71.5%, close to the 70% on Kalshi that CoinDesk cited.
That matters because the industry’s main legislative goal is still unfinished. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act stalled in the Senate this session, and regulators have since moved ahead on their own, as we covered in our report on the CFTC writing crypto market rules the Senate could not pass. Reuters noted that the bill faces a harder path next year if Democrats control one or both chambers, and cited JPMorgan analysts saying agency-level rules can be reversed by a later administration.
Even a clean sweep for the industry’s preferred candidates would not change the arithmetic in the Senate. Any major crypto bill, whether a revived market structure effort or a tax measure, still needs 60 votes, which means Democratic support. That is the real test of the $170 million: not how many races the PACs win on Tuesday, but whether the members they backed in both parties are willing to move a bill in 2027.
What to watch on Election Day
Ohio is the headline result, since no other race drew as much crypto money. Texas and Iowa will show whether the Winklevoss-funded opposition spending made a difference in closer contests. The House outcome will decide who chairs the Financial Services Committee, which wrote the original Clarity Act. Prices will keep moving as results come in, and prediction markets are themselves a product the next Congress may be asked to regulate.
FAQ
How much has the crypto industry spent on the 2026 midterms?
About $154.7 million from Fairshake and its affiliates, according to OpenSecrets, and close to $170 million including the Digital Freedom Fund and the Fellowship Fund. Reuters counted about $176 million across all crypto groups.
Which race got the most crypto PAC money?
Ohio’s Senate race. Fairshake and its affiliates spent almost $56 million to defeat Democrat Sherrod Brown, more than a third of the group’s total.
What do prediction markets expect?
On Monday, Polymarket priced Democrats at 94.5% to win the House, 72.5% to win the Senate and 72.5% to win the Ohio Senate race.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
