Robinhood has agreed to route part of its retail event-contract volume through OG.com, Crypto.com’s newly spun-out prediction markets business, while taking minority equity stakes in both companies.
The multiyear deal was announced on 8 September, with selected football contracts beginning to route through OG.com the same day ahead of the US professional football season.
Robinhood’s stakes will be priced in line with Citadel Securities’ July investment, which valued Crypto.com at $20 billion including a standalone $5 billion valuation for OG.com. The size of Robinhood’s holdings was not disclosed.
OG.com operates a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and will provide exchange, clearing and infrastructure services for Robinhood’s event-contract business. The companies describe it as OG.com’s largest business-to-business partnership by trading volume.
Robinhood shares rose 0.9% and traded at $122.02. CRO gained about 5.3% to $0.0604.
Prediction markets are now bigger than crypto for Robinhood
The financial rationale is stark, and it explains why a brokerage is buying equity in its own supplier.
Robinhood’s event-contract revenue rose more than tenfold year on year to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026. The number of contracts traded also rose more than tenfold, reaching a record 13.6 billion.
That made event contracts Robinhood’s second-largest disclosed transaction category after options. It generated more revenue than equities at $129 million and cryptocurrencies at $100 million, in the same quarter.
Bernstein forecast in June that Robinhood’s prediction markets could produce $586 million in 2026, up from $150 million in 2025, contributing roughly 17% of transaction-based revenue and 10% of total company revenue.
For context, Robinhood reported record total net revenues of $1.31 billion for the quarter, up 32% year on year.
A business that barely existed 18 months ago is now outearning the crypto operation it was meant to complement.
Robinhood is diversifying its supply, not replacing it
The deal adds a fourth venue rather than swapping one out.
Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub last year with Kalshi providing contracts. It has since added ForecastEX and Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse operated through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. It will continue routing contracts to all three.
A Kalshi spokesperson said the deal does not affect its existing arrangement with Robinhood.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and prediction markets, said the agreement would let the company offer more competitive pricing and a wider range of contracts, and gives Robinhood “more skin in the game.”
That last phrase is the interesting part. Robinhood now owns equity in one of its suppliers, which creates an obvious incentive to direct volume there rather than to Kalshi or ForecastEX. Whether that produces better pricing for customers or simply better economics for Robinhood is not something an outside observer can assess from routing data.
Crypto.com gets the distribution it lost
For Crypto.com, this replaces a partnership that fell through.
The exchange had announced a direct prediction-market integration with Truth Social earlier this year. Trump Media terminated the arrangement in August alongside a planned $6.4 billion CRO treasury vehicle, with its interim chief executive citing market saturation. What remained was realigned into a marketing arrangement.
The Robinhood deal delivers something better. Crypto.com has offered prediction-market contracts through its derivatives arm since late 2024 and launched OG as a separate experience in February 2026, spinning it into a standalone company alongside this announcement.
Kris Marszalek, founder and chief executive of both companies, said he wants OG.com to become “the most liquid venue globally for innovative derivative instruments, starting with prediction markets and quickly expanding into futures and perpetuals.”
He told the Wall Street Journal that prediction markets are the first product the companies plan to launch together, and that they had discussed equity-linked perpetual futures subject to regulatory approval.
The legal position is not settled
The sector is growing considerably faster than the rules governing it.
Combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached $50 billion last year and has passed $130 billion in 2026 alone.
OG.com operates a CFTC-regulated exchange, but the question of whether sports event contracts fall under federal derivatives law or state gambling regulation remains disputed. The CFTC has maintained in court filings that registered derivatives exchanges fall under its exclusive jurisdiction. State officials argue contracts based on sporting events function as betting products and should meet local licensing, age and consumer-protection requirements.
In July, attorneys general from 44 states challenged the CFTC, asking it to withdraw and rewrite its proposed rules.
Federal courts have so far sided with the exchanges. A judge blocked Minnesota’s prediction market ban in July, following rulings for Kalshi against New Jersey and Arizona earlier in the year.
Competition is intensifying regardless. Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has directed a team to build a competing app, and FanDuel and DraftKings have both entered the space.
The criticism is straightforward
Critics argue that placing prediction markets alongside conventional investment products creates a slippery slope for retail investors.
That objection is harder to dismiss when event contracts outearn equities on the same app. A user opening Robinhood sees stocks, options, crypto and yes-or-no wagers on football games presented within the same interface, with the same account balance funding all of them.
Robinhood is preparing a dedicated election hub ahead of the November midterms, carrying contracts on state and federal races, with some potentially routed through OG.com.
The company has built a substantial business on the argument that these are derivatives rather than bets. Forty-four state attorneys general disagree, and the courts have not finished with the question.
FAQ
What did Robinhood agree to?
A multiyear deal to route selected retail event contracts through OG.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, plus minority equity stakes in both Crypto.com and OG.com. Football contracts began routing on 8 September, with a phased rollout to eligible US customers.
How were the stakes valued?
In line with Citadel Securities’ July investment, which valued Crypto.com at $20 billion including a standalone $5 billion for OG.com. Robinhood did not disclose the size of its holdings.
Does this replace Kalshi?
No. Robinhood will continue routing contracts to Kalshi, ForecastEX and Rothera. A Kalshi spokesperson said the deal does not affect its existing arrangement, though Robinhood’s equity stake gives it an incentive to shift volume toward OG.com.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
