Bitcoin briefly cleared $65,400 in early trading on Monday before slipping back below $65,000, leaving the market largely flat ahead of Wednesday’s July inflation report, the week’s only significant scheduled catalyst.
BTC traded around $64,950 through the US morning, up roughly 0.2% on the day, before easing further to near $63,800 later in the session. Ether traded around $1,871, Solana at $75.86.
The July Consumer Price Index lands Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline inflation to ease to 3.4% annually and core inflation to slow to 2.5%. Producer prices follow on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.
For the first time in more than a month, no legislative deadline hangs over the market. The Senate pushed its CLARITY Act vote to September, and prediction market odds of 2026 passage have fallen to around 20%.
The oil complication
The consensus forecast may prove optimistic, and the reason is energy.
June’s CPI delivered a sharp slowdown, with headline inflation falling 0.4% month over month, the largest decline since April 2020, and the annual rate dropping to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core CPI was unchanged on the month at 2.6% annually. Energy did most of the work: the BLS energy index fell 5.7% in June, including a 9.7% drop in gasoline prices.
That tailwind has reversed. Brent crude rose 1% to $84.40 on Monday as uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz shipping persisted. Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee has argued June’s soft print is likely to reverse in the July data precisely because of oil’s Hormuz-driven turnaround.
The Federal Reserve flagged the same issue directly. When it held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, the statement noted inflation remained above the 2% goal partly because of energy-related supply pressures. Three voting officials preferred a 25 basis point increase.
Friday’s employment report cut into September hike expectations after 23,000 jobs were lost against forecasts of 80,000 created. Wednesday’s print will show whether that repricing holds.
ETF demand has been the support
Institutional buying has done most of the work holding Bitcoin above $64,000 through the past week.
SoSoValue recorded $854 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs between August 3 and August 7, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for roughly $694 million. That marked a clear reversal from the weaker flows around the end of July, when the category posted its lightest month on record.
The demand has not produced a breakout. Bitcoin sat near $64,200 on August 7 even after four consecutive positive ETF sessions, and Friday’s additional inflows extended the streak while the price continued testing the same resistance.
On-chain data shows a similar split. Larger wallets have been accumulating over roughly two months while retail holders have not, a divergence that has typically appeared near cycle lows but which has yet to translate into price.
The levels traders are watching
The $65,000 to $66,000 band has repeatedly capped rallies, and it contains a concentration of liquidation liquidity that makes moves through it choppy.
Two overhead levels matter more than the round numbers. The 50-month exponential moving average sits at $65,827, and Bitcoin has been unable to reclaim it. Analyst Rekt Capital describes that inability as a classic predecessor of a final bear-market capitulation, and notes Bitcoin is forming lower highs relative to July’s upside wick, whereas August 2022 developed a higher high relative to the preceding July.
The 200-week exponential moving average sits higher at $68,468 and remains the key higher-timeframe level.
Momentum readings are mildly constructive. The Relative Strength Index stood at 55.07, above both its own moving average at 50.44 and the neutral 50 line, pointing to a slight buyer advantage without signalling much conviction.
On the downside, a daily close below $57,730 would break the current structure and expose the $52,750 realised price level.
The wider week
Wednesday’s CPI does not arrive alone. The OPEC monthly report lands the same day, with production and demand forecasts shaping oil expectations that feed directly back into the inflation picture. July producer prices follow Thursday, offering a wholesale read that can extend or reverse the CPI reaction, and retail sales close the week Friday.
Treasury auctions totalling $125 billion also run through the week, against a yield curve that showed 3-year, 10-year and 30-year yields at 4.25%, 4.65% and 5.19% respectively at the August 7 fixing. Rising long-end yields have been a persistent headwind for non-yielding assets.
Elsewhere in crypto, a back-loaded token unlock slate is led by YZY on Sunday, releasing roughly 23% of its circulating supply, alongside sizeable Pump.fun, Avalanche and Aptos releases. Pi Network’s Protocol 26 deadline and the Avantis V2 launch round out the schedule.
What resolves it
The mechanics are straightforward. A cooler-than-expected print would strengthen the case for the Fed to ease and support risk appetite. A hotter reading reinforces a higher-for-longer stance and removes the main argument behind the recent recovery.
Neither outcome is priced with conviction. Bitcoin has spent the week absorbing $854 million in institutional inflows without clearing resistance, which suggests buyers are present but not aggressive enough to force a breakout on their own. Wednesday determines whether they get help.
Baskets of on-chain indicators continue to point to the bear market extending through the second half of the year, and the 50-month EMA at $65,827 remains unreclaimed. Bitcoin needs a reason to go through it. The July CPI is the only one on the calendar this week.
FAQ
When is the July CPI report and what is expected?
The July Consumer Price Index is released Wednesday, August 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline inflation to ease to 3.4% annually and core inflation to slow to 2.5%. June’s report showed headline CPI falling 0.4% month over month, the largest decline since April 2020, with the annual rate dropping to 3.5% from 4.2%. Producer prices follow Thursday and retail sales Friday.
Why might inflation come in hotter than forecast?
Energy drove June’s decline, with the BLS energy index falling 5.7% and gasoline prices dropping 9.7%. That has reversed, with Brent crude at $84.40 on Monday amid continued Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee has argued June’s soft print is likely to reverse in July data for this reason. The Fed’s July 29 statement noted inflation remained above target partly due to energy-related supply pressures, with three voting officials preferring a rate increase.
What are the key price levels?
The $65,000 to $66,000 band has repeatedly capped rallies and holds a concentration of liquidation liquidity. The 50-month exponential moving average at $65,827 remains unreclaimed, which analyst Rekt Capital describes as a pattern that has historically preceded final bear-market capitulation. The 200-week EMA sits at $68,468. On the downside, a daily close below $57,730 would break the current structure and expose the $52,750 realised price level. RSI stands at 55.07, mildly constructive.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
